NEW DELHI: There is a strong possibility that at least one year between 2024-28 will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year on record, and there is an 80% likelihood that annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degree Celsius — the Paris Agreement threshold — above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in its report released on World Environment Day on Wednesday.
It coincides with the day when the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service officially reported that May 2024 was the hottest May in recorded history, marking 12 straight months of the hottest months ever. The global average near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45 degree Celsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 degree C) above the pre-industrial baseline.
“We are at a moment of truth. The truth is… almost 10 years since the Paris Agreement was adopted, the target of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is hanging by a thread,” United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres said.
“Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening,” he said while calling for much more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy from June 13 to 15.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 baseline) and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degree C by the end of this century.
Though the WMO’s report is a stark warning that the world is getting closer to the goals set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, the threshold of limiting temperature rise within 1.5 degree C actually refers to long-term temperature increase over decades, not over one to five years.
The WMO also said global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 degree C and 1.9 degree C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, underlining the possibility (86% likelihood) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record.
“Behind these statistics lies the bleak reality that we are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement,” WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett said.
“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5 degree C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months — and indeed as averaged over the most recent 12-month period. However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 degree C goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over decades,” she added.
Given the 12 monthly records, the global average temperature for the last 12 months (June 2023 – May 2024) was also the highest on record, at 1.63 degree C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Last year’s global temperature was boosted by a strong El Niño – climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Though the WMO predicts the development of a La Niña and a return to cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific in the near-term, the possibility of higher global temperatures in the next five years reflect the continued warming from greenhouse gases.
“The truth is … the world is spewing emissions so fast that by 2030, a far higher temperature rise would be all but guaranteed,” said Guterres.
It coincides with the day when the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service officially reported that May 2024 was the hottest May in recorded history, marking 12 straight months of the hottest months ever. The global average near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45 degree Celsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 degree C) above the pre-industrial baseline.
“We are at a moment of truth. The truth is… almost 10 years since the Paris Agreement was adopted, the target of limiting long-term global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is hanging by a thread,” United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres said.
“Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening,” he said while calling for much more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy from June 13 to 15.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 baseline) and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degree C by the end of this century.
Though the WMO’s report is a stark warning that the world is getting closer to the goals set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, the threshold of limiting temperature rise within 1.5 degree C actually refers to long-term temperature increase over decades, not over one to five years.
The WMO also said global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 degree C and 1.9 degree C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, underlining the possibility (86% likelihood) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record.
“Behind these statistics lies the bleak reality that we are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement,” WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett said.
“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5 degree C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months — and indeed as averaged over the most recent 12-month period. However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 degree C goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over decades,” she added.
Given the 12 monthly records, the global average temperature for the last 12 months (June 2023 – May 2024) was also the highest on record, at 1.63 degree C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Last year’s global temperature was boosted by a strong El Niño – climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Though the WMO predicts the development of a La Niña and a return to cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific in the near-term, the possibility of higher global temperatures in the next five years reflect the continued warming from greenhouse gases.
“The truth is … the world is spewing emissions so fast that by 2030, a far higher temperature rise would be all but guaranteed,” said Guterres.