Voting will take place across all 50 states in the US on November 5, but experts have identified seven pivotal states, often referred to as ‘swing states‘ or ‘purple states‘ that are crucial for determining the outcome of the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
These battlegrounds — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin— collectively hold 93 electoral votes, making them vital for either candidate’s path to the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.
The significance of these states lies in their historical voting patterns and their potential to swing between Democratic and Republican candidates.
For instance, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin form a trio known as the “Blue Wall”, which flipped to Trump in 2016 but was reclaimed by Biden in 2020 with narrow margins.
Winning these states is essential for Harris to solidify her chances against Trump, who aims to reclaim his former office.
What are purple states?
Purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, are those that do not have a clear partisan leaning.
They can be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in presidential elections.
This unpredictability makes them vital for candidates seeking to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
The US presidential election operates through an Electoral College system where each state is allocated a number of electors based on its representation in Congress.
Most states use a winner-takes-all approach, meaning the candidate who receives the majority of votes in that state gets all its electoral votes. This system amplifies the significance of purple states; winning these can provide a candidate with a substantial boost toward reaching the 270-vote threshold.
The 7 purple states
- Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) Arizona has emerged as a crucial purple state, particularly in the 2020 election when it flipped to support Joe Biden narrowly. Its diverse population and urban centers like Phoenix have contributed to a shift towards Democratic preferences, yet it remains competitive. For Trump, regaining Arizona is vital to reclaiming lost ground in the Southwest, while for Kamala Harris, maintaining this state is essential to solidifying Democratic gains in the region.
- Georgia (16 Electoral Votes) Georgia gained national attention during the 2020 election due to its razor-thin margins and allegations of election interference. The state’s diverse population and changing demographics make it a focal point for both campaigns. Georgia’s significance surged in 2020 when it voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1992.
- Michigan (15 Electoral Votes) Michigan is historically a Democratic stronghold that swung to Trump in 2016 but returned to Biden in 2020. The state’s economy and issues like manufacturing jobs resonate deeply with voters. For Trump, winning Michigan is crucial to restoring his 2016 coalition, while for Harris, reinforcing Democratic support is key to ensuring Michigan remains blue.
- Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) Nevada’s growing Latino population and urban centers like Las Vegas make it an essential target for both parties, particularly as it has leaned Democratic in recent elections. The state’s economy and tourism industry are significant factors influencing voter sentiment. For Trump, capturing Nevada would signal a broader appeal beyond traditional Republican bases; for Harris, retaining this state is essential for maintaining a Democratic majority.
- North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) North Carolina has become increasingly competitive, with both parties investing heavily in outreach efforts to mobilize voters across various demographics. North Carolina is a classic purple state with a mix of urban and rural voters. It has leaned Republican in recent elections but shows potential for Democratic gains due to its growing metropolitan areas.
- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes) Often viewed as a bellwether state, Pennsylvania’s industrial base and suburban dynamics make it critical for both candidates’ paths to victory. It swung from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 and then back to Biden in 2020. The state’s diverse electorate makes it a microcosm of national trends.
- Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes) Wisconsin has become emblematic of the nation’s political divides, having flipped between parties in recent elections. Its importance lies not only in its electoral votes but also as a reflection of broader national trends regarding rural versus urban voting patterns.
Historically, purple states have played decisive roles in past elections. For instance, Biden’s victories in Michigan and Wisconsin were crucial for his overall success in 2020. The ability of candidates to resonate with local issues while maintaining national narratives is critical in these areas.