BRASILIA: When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022, Biden administration activated a diplomatic offensive that was as important as its scramble to ship weapons to the Ukrainian military. Wielding economic sanctions and calling for a collective defence of international order, the US sought to punish Russia with economic pain and political exile.The goal was to see companies and countries cut ties with Moscow.
But two years later, Russian President Putin is not nearly as isolated as US officials had hoped. Russia’s inherent strength, rooted in its vast supplies of oil and natural gas, has powered a financial and political resilience that threatens to outlast Western opposition. In parts of Asia, Africa and South America, his influence is as strong as ever or even growing. And his grip on power at home appears as strong as ever.
The war has undoubtedly taken a toll on Russia. It has wrecked the country’s standing with much of Europe. International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest. UN has repeatedly condemned the invasion.
And to hear Biden administration officials tell it, Russia has suffered a major strategic failure. “Today, Russia is more isolated on the world stage than ever,” secretary of state Antony Blinken said in June. Putin’s war, he added, “has diminished Russian influence on every continent.”
Beyond North America and Europe, however, there is evidence to the contrary.
China, India and Brazil are buying Russian oil in record quantities, feasting on the steep discounts Putin now offers to countries willing to replace his lost European customers. With those growing economic relationships have come strong diplomatic ties, including with some close US partners. To some Russia experts, American and European leaders have not fully reckoned with this reality.
But two years later, Russian President Putin is not nearly as isolated as US officials had hoped. Russia’s inherent strength, rooted in its vast supplies of oil and natural gas, has powered a financial and political resilience that threatens to outlast Western opposition. In parts of Asia, Africa and South America, his influence is as strong as ever or even growing. And his grip on power at home appears as strong as ever.
The war has undoubtedly taken a toll on Russia. It has wrecked the country’s standing with much of Europe. International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest. UN has repeatedly condemned the invasion.
And to hear Biden administration officials tell it, Russia has suffered a major strategic failure. “Today, Russia is more isolated on the world stage than ever,” secretary of state Antony Blinken said in June. Putin’s war, he added, “has diminished Russian influence on every continent.”
Beyond North America and Europe, however, there is evidence to the contrary.
China, India and Brazil are buying Russian oil in record quantities, feasting on the steep discounts Putin now offers to countries willing to replace his lost European customers. With those growing economic relationships have come strong diplomatic ties, including with some close US partners. To some Russia experts, American and European leaders have not fully reckoned with this reality.