What began as a tough fight between equal forces has turned out to be ‘advantage UDF’ as Kerala enters the last leg of the election campaign. While UDF, led by Congress, is banking heavily on its clout as the main opponent of BJP nationally, CPM-led LDF is also trying to emerge as a ‘credible’ contender by branding Congress as the ‘B team’ of BJP. UDF had won 19 of the 20 seats in the 2019 LS polls fought almost on the same lines.
UDF initially appeared almost in disarray as the party and its netas functioned like members of a divided house.But now it appears that the public derision towards Congress has been submerged by a burgeoning anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan govt, in office since 2016.
When CM Vijayan came out all guns blazing against Congress and repeatedly questioned the integrity of its leaders, it seemed to be working in LDF’s favour. “How do you know Congress MPs won’t defect to BJP?” he asked. The defection of A K Antony’s son Anil and K Karunakaran’s daughter Padmaja Venugopal to BJP gave more credence to the attack. But it backfired almost irreparably when Rahul Gandhi tore into his claims and even asked why the CM was not in jail despite facing several allegations. Almost parallelly, a spat between CPM’s K K Shailaja and Congress candidate Shafi Parambil worked to the latter’s advantage as the CPM veteran could produce little evidence to prove her claims.
UDF also emerged as the preferred side for Muslim parties, the support of which LDF enjoyed in the last assembly elections. SDPI, the political arm of the outlawed PFI, was the first to declare its support for Congress-led UDF. Welfare Party, the political face of Jamaat-e-Islami, followed suit. Following criticism from CPM and BJP, Congress functionaries declined SDPI’s offer, but the latter was unfazed. SDPI claims it has 10,000-50,000 votes in at least 13 Lok Sabha constituencies. This also indicates that Muslims have not subscribed to CPM’s claim that voters, especially minorities who voted in favour of Congress in 2019, got carried away by claims that Rahul Gandhi would become PM. Kerala being a state with 45% voters belonging to the minority communities, their support is decisive on all fronts.
Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram are the only seats where BJP has put up a major fight. Being a three-corner contest, the chances of BJP candidate Suresh Gopi have brightened in Thrissur. Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is taking on three-time MP Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram. The lack of formidable allies and the failure to influence Christians have made BJP’s prospects bleak this time, too, though it is expected to improve its vote share significantly.
UDF initially appeared almost in disarray as the party and its netas functioned like members of a divided house.But now it appears that the public derision towards Congress has been submerged by a burgeoning anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan govt, in office since 2016.
When CM Vijayan came out all guns blazing against Congress and repeatedly questioned the integrity of its leaders, it seemed to be working in LDF’s favour. “How do you know Congress MPs won’t defect to BJP?” he asked. The defection of A K Antony’s son Anil and K Karunakaran’s daughter Padmaja Venugopal to BJP gave more credence to the attack. But it backfired almost irreparably when Rahul Gandhi tore into his claims and even asked why the CM was not in jail despite facing several allegations. Almost parallelly, a spat between CPM’s K K Shailaja and Congress candidate Shafi Parambil worked to the latter’s advantage as the CPM veteran could produce little evidence to prove her claims.
UDF also emerged as the preferred side for Muslim parties, the support of which LDF enjoyed in the last assembly elections. SDPI, the political arm of the outlawed PFI, was the first to declare its support for Congress-led UDF. Welfare Party, the political face of Jamaat-e-Islami, followed suit. Following criticism from CPM and BJP, Congress functionaries declined SDPI’s offer, but the latter was unfazed. SDPI claims it has 10,000-50,000 votes in at least 13 Lok Sabha constituencies. This also indicates that Muslims have not subscribed to CPM’s claim that voters, especially minorities who voted in favour of Congress in 2019, got carried away by claims that Rahul Gandhi would become PM. Kerala being a state with 45% voters belonging to the minority communities, their support is decisive on all fronts.
Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram are the only seats where BJP has put up a major fight. Being a three-corner contest, the chances of BJP candidate Suresh Gopi have brightened in Thrissur. Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is taking on three-time MP Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram. The lack of formidable allies and the failure to influence Christians have made BJP’s prospects bleak this time, too, though it is expected to improve its vote share significantly.