The hurried and rather unceremonious departure of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh hasn’t just wrong-footed the Indian government but also left it faced with possibly the biggest foreign policy challenge in the neighbourhood in recent times, one which might make the storm in ties with the Maldives this year look like a walk in the park.
From India’s perspective, despite her many failings and an increasingly untenable position in domestic politics, Hasina acted as a source of regional stability by keeping religious extremists and anti-India forces under check.Although NSA Ajit Doval met Hasina at the Hindon airbase, there was no official response from India, which had described the protests against Hasina as an internal matter, to the developments in Dhaka till late in the evening.
In a sign of things to come, reports from Dhaka said that Hasina’s Awami League would be kept out of the interim government that the army is forming, while representatives of opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami would be included. While Jamaat is known for its links with Pakistan, the BNP, which didn’t contest the election earlier this year because it wasn’t held under a caretaker government, has never lost an opportunity to stoke anti-India sentiments. Together they fanned what started out as a genuine student movement in early July into a violent countrywide agitation for regime change.
While India will hope that the army will have a moderating influence on the new government, there’s still a lot it will be concerned about. Political stability in Bangladesh under Hasina allowed India to focus on economic development in the country which is seen by the government also as an indispensable partner in the development of its own northeastern region. The development partnership with focus on energy and connectivity flourished. It allowed India to have cooperative and peaceful border management mechanisms along the 4000-km border with Bangladesh, and address issues related to drug and human trafficking and fake notes. India will be concerned about how such initiatives are impacted as the new government in Dhaka takes over.
Second, India will need to guard against any effort to fan regional unrest, including use of Bangladesh soil for anti-India activities by foreign elements who have waited long to see the back of Hasina. India was faced with a similar situation in Afghanistan, much to Pakistan’s jubilation, with the return of the Taliban in 2021 and although the regime in Kabul has been receptive to India’s concerns so far, New Delhi continues to warily follow reports about activities of Pakistan-based terror groups in Afghanistan.
Third, India will be worried about how counterterrorism and defence cooperation with Dhaka might be affected. In his meetings with Hasina, Modi had been stressing on joint efforts to counter terrorism and radicalisation and in their last summit in June, the 2 sides had agreed to explore defence industrial cooperation for modernisation of Bangladesh armed forces.
Fourth, the role of China in the dramatically altered political situation in Bangladesh will have to be closely followed. While maintaining strong economic ties with China, which earned her Beijing’s endorsement after the farcical elections in January, Hasina had ensured Chinese investments did not impinge on India’s security interests. Despite China’s interest in the Teesta development project, Hasina was keen that India execute the project and her last meeting with Modi saw the Indian side agreeing to send a technical team to Bangladesh to examine a proposal for management and conservation of the river waters. With Hasina’s exit, India will be worried about how the new government will handle what both sides saw till now as shared strategic concerns and interests.
Successive Indian governments had an “all-encompassing’’ relationship with the Hasina government that was based on trust, goodwill and respect for sovereignty, with the Indian ministry of external affairs hailing it a model for bilateral ties in the region and beyond.
Although it failed to deliver on the Teesta water sharing agreement, The Indian government worked hard to address Bangladesh’s development needs and also acted as Hasina’s principal backer in the international community, shielding her from Western outrage over democratic backsliding in the country. In turn, Hasina took care of India’s security interests, resolving the contentious boundary issue and not allowing the restive Islamist elements to target India, although the Indian government believes she could have done more to counter increasing radicalization ideologically.
From India’s perspective, despite her many failings and an increasingly untenable position in domestic politics, Hasina acted as a source of regional stability by keeping religious extremists and anti-India forces under check.Although NSA Ajit Doval met Hasina at the Hindon airbase, there was no official response from India, which had described the protests against Hasina as an internal matter, to the developments in Dhaka till late in the evening.
In a sign of things to come, reports from Dhaka said that Hasina’s Awami League would be kept out of the interim government that the army is forming, while representatives of opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami would be included. While Jamaat is known for its links with Pakistan, the BNP, which didn’t contest the election earlier this year because it wasn’t held under a caretaker government, has never lost an opportunity to stoke anti-India sentiments. Together they fanned what started out as a genuine student movement in early July into a violent countrywide agitation for regime change.
While India will hope that the army will have a moderating influence on the new government, there’s still a lot it will be concerned about. Political stability in Bangladesh under Hasina allowed India to focus on economic development in the country which is seen by the government also as an indispensable partner in the development of its own northeastern region. The development partnership with focus on energy and connectivity flourished. It allowed India to have cooperative and peaceful border management mechanisms along the 4000-km border with Bangladesh, and address issues related to drug and human trafficking and fake notes. India will be concerned about how such initiatives are impacted as the new government in Dhaka takes over.
Second, India will need to guard against any effort to fan regional unrest, including use of Bangladesh soil for anti-India activities by foreign elements who have waited long to see the back of Hasina. India was faced with a similar situation in Afghanistan, much to Pakistan’s jubilation, with the return of the Taliban in 2021 and although the regime in Kabul has been receptive to India’s concerns so far, New Delhi continues to warily follow reports about activities of Pakistan-based terror groups in Afghanistan.
Third, India will be worried about how counterterrorism and defence cooperation with Dhaka might be affected. In his meetings with Hasina, Modi had been stressing on joint efforts to counter terrorism and radicalisation and in their last summit in June, the 2 sides had agreed to explore defence industrial cooperation for modernisation of Bangladesh armed forces.
Fourth, the role of China in the dramatically altered political situation in Bangladesh will have to be closely followed. While maintaining strong economic ties with China, which earned her Beijing’s endorsement after the farcical elections in January, Hasina had ensured Chinese investments did not impinge on India’s security interests. Despite China’s interest in the Teesta development project, Hasina was keen that India execute the project and her last meeting with Modi saw the Indian side agreeing to send a technical team to Bangladesh to examine a proposal for management and conservation of the river waters. With Hasina’s exit, India will be worried about how the new government will handle what both sides saw till now as shared strategic concerns and interests.
Successive Indian governments had an “all-encompassing’’ relationship with the Hasina government that was based on trust, goodwill and respect for sovereignty, with the Indian ministry of external affairs hailing it a model for bilateral ties in the region and beyond.
Although it failed to deliver on the Teesta water sharing agreement, The Indian government worked hard to address Bangladesh’s development needs and also acted as Hasina’s principal backer in the international community, shielding her from Western outrage over democratic backsliding in the country. In turn, Hasina took care of India’s security interests, resolving the contentious boundary issue and not allowing the restive Islamist elements to target India, although the Indian government believes she could have done more to counter increasing radicalization ideologically.