A tie in the US presidential election, with neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win, remains unlikely yet possible. If such a situation erupts which is unlikely to happen here’s how an Electoral College deadlock would unfold and what it means for the election outcome.
Understanding the electoral college
In US presidential elections, the president is chosen not by the national popular vote, but by a 538-member Electoral College. Each state’s electoral votes reflect its Congressional representation: two senators plus a number of House representatives based on population. Thus, each state holds a different number of electoral votes.
Most states, except Maine and Nebraska, use a “winner-takes-all” approach, awarding all electoral votes to the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote.
Example: How Florida’s electoral votes are allocated
To illustrate, let’s look at Florida, a state with 29 electoral votes.
- Electoral votes assigned: Florida has 29 electoral votes due to its Congressional representation (2 senators + 27 representatives).
- The popular vote: On Election Day, voters in Florida cast ballots for president. Suppose Candidate A (Donald Trump) gets 5 million votes, and Candidate B (Kamala Harris) receives 4.8 million votes. Candidate A wins the popular vote in Florida.
- Winner takes all: Florida’s “winner-takes-all” rule means Candidate A takes all 29 electoral votes for winning the state’s popular vote.
- Reaching 270 electoral votes: Each candidate accumulates electoral votes from different states. The candidate who reaches or exceeds 270 electoral votes wins the presidency, regardless of the national popular vote.
Thus, Florida’s 29 electoral votes significantly contribute to a candidate’s path to 270, especially in a close race.
What if neither candidate reaches 270 electoral votes?
In the unlikely event that both candidates end up with 269 electoral votes, the election decision moves to Congress, as the US Constitution dictates. Specifically, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the president, and the Senate would select the vice president.
How a 269-269 electoral college tie could occur
A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, though unlikely, could arise under specific scenarios. For instance, if Kamala Harris wins key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump secures Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single congressional district in Nebraska, each candidate would end up with exactly 269 electoral votes. This deadlock would trigger a contingent election, as no candidate would have reached the required 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes.
Contingent Election: How the House chooses President
In this case, a “contingent election” would be held in Congress on January 6, 2025.
- One State, One Vote: In a contingent election, each state delegation in the House casts a single vote for president. This setup gives smaller states, like Wyoming, the same voting power as populous states like California.
- The vote requirement: A candidate needs a majority of state delegations (26 out of 50) to win the presidency. Under the current partisan alignment, this structure could give Republicans an edge.
- Senate decides the Vice President: While the House votes on the president, the Senate chooses the vice president. Each senator casts an individual vote, with the candidate who wins a majority becoming vice president.
The last contingent election was in 1800, when a tie between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams led the House to decide the presidency after 36 ballots. This contentious process ultimately led to the 12th Amendment, which refined the rules but left the possibility of a tied election open.
Implications of a tied election
If a tie were to happen today, a contingent election would introduce intense uncertainty. The House would need to establish rules for the process, likely sparking partisan disagreements. Combined with an already divisive campaign, this could deepen political tensions among American voters, many of whom might already be skeptical about election integrity.
In short, a tie in the US presidential election would transfer the decision to Congress. Each state delegation in the House would cast a single vote for the president, while the Senate would select the vice president. This rare scenario would introduce a period of political tension and uncertainty increasing the complexities of the US Electoral College system.