Factional tussles, surprise preference flows, and a rival’s “all over the shop” pitch to senior delegates may have created the perfect storm for former Wentworth MP Dave Sharma to make his surprise return to federal politics.
After eight rounds of counting, the former Australian ambassador to Israel emerged victorious in claiming the Senate spot left by the retirement of Marise Payne.
Mr Sharma beat out front runner, former NSW transport minister Andrew Constance, 295 to 206, with hard-right hopeful, Zed Seselja, coming in third.
Despite Mr Constance and Mr Seselja having the backing of Federal Liberal Leader Peter Dutton, Mr Sharma sailed into the top spot, winning Mr Seselja’s preferences.
One senior Liberal state executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the consensus among the right was Mr Constance was a “shoe-in” to win, which likely led Mr Sharma to be preferenced ahead of Mr Constance.
“It was a big upset for the factions, there was this assumption it was (a done deal) for Andrew Constance,” he said.
“There were half a dozen of players who weren’t supportive of Constance and didn’t turn up because the feeling in the party was that he was going to win the selection.”
However, another insider believed that between Mr Sharma and Mr Constance, Mr Sharma was always going to be the more appealing candidate, especially once Mr Seslja was out of the race.
Out Mr Seslja’s 155 votes, 76 per cent (118) went to Mr Sharma, while 37 were distributed to Mr Constance.
“Dave was definitely not the preferred candidate of the right wing, but whatever concerns and problems they had with Dave, I think they had more with Constance,” they said.
“Because to them, (Constance is) more of a moderate, factional operative.”
Mr Seselja, while not a moderate, suffered from a similar fate to Mr Constance when it comes to gaining broad support from his base.
With Mr Constance unable to unite the moderate vote, Mr Sharma was able to earn support from Alex Hawke’s centre-right faction, while the conservative candidates were split between backing Jess Colins, Monia Tudehope, and Mr Seslja.
“He (Mr Seselja) didn’t have broader appeal. He is too conservative to get any broad moderate support,” said another senior party member.
“The right stuffed it up in terms of choosing Zed. Monica was not conservative enough for them, so she was going to have to rely on broader appeal but she didn’t get a big enough a base.”
Mr Seselja’s performance on the day, especially around his speech to delegates, may have also affected his changes.
“The hype of Zed was out there, that’s why (former NSW state MP) Lou Amato dropped off,” said one senior member.
“I was actually quite shocked by how poorly he did but he did not perform on the day.
“He didn’t speak with conviction, he was just all over the shop.”
Meanwhile, factional tussles between the rusted-on old Moderates (Constance) and new moderates (Sharma), was cited as another reason for Mr Constance’s loss.
Sunday was Mr Constances’s third tilt at federal politics after missing out on the Senate spot vacated by the death of Jim Molan, and the losing his challenge on the seat of Gilmore in the 2022 election.
“There was definitely an element of the old moderates versus the new moderates,” he said.
“I think it shows the triumph of big selection democracy, and the ability for an outsider to win preselection in that environment.”
Outside of Mr Sharma’s shock triumph, Sunday’s Senate battle revealed another dark horse contender: Former NSW RSL president James Brown.
He was credited with giving the best presentation of the day, he spoke about his time in the military as an army captain, and how he “turned around” the scandal plagued head office of the veteran’s group.
Despite not having any factional support, Mr Brown cinched 55 votes in the first count.
“He went from having a voting base of zero, because he had no factions supporting him, to getting 60 votes. That doesn’t sound like much but that’s very good,” said one senior Liberal who watched his presentation.
“People watched his performance and went: This person has something to add”.