Film trade is very bullish on the exhibition business of cinema this year. Experts have revealed to ETimes that the expectation from theatrical revenue could be around Rs 12,000 crore this year. Entertainment and Media Analyst Ashish Pherwani said, “We can expect 2023 to deliver theatrical revenues of Rs 11,000 to 12,000 crore, above their pre-COVID highs, on the back of stories that resonate and travel well across languages with stronger ticket pricing.” He added, “I am only talking about domestic theatrical business and not including overseas business of Hindi films.”
The year 2023 started with a bang with Shah Rukh Khan‘s Pathaan, the success of which was initially considered to be an aberration for 2023, but Karan Johar’s Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani got the family audiences back to the cinemas.That was followed by multiple films that turned out to be super hits at the box office including Gadar 2, Dream Girl 2 and Jawan, which has created new records at the box office.
Trade analyst Atul Mohan said, “The film industry, which had been navigating a tumultuous path back to its former glory, found itself bathed in success during the third quarter of 2023, spanning from July to September. This period not only rejuvenated the spirits of filmmakers but also breathed new life into the audience’s love for the silver screen. The quarter kicked off with the release of Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani on July 28, which grossed over 150 crores at the box office. This was followed by Gadar 2 and OMG 2 on August 11, which grossed over 500 crores and 135 crores respectively. Dream Girl 2, which was released on August 25, crossed the 100-crore mark. And Jawan, which was released on September 7, has already crossed 330 crores in just 7 days and running to good occupancy.”
The last quarter of 2023 seems to be even more promising for Bollywood with Salman Khan returning with Tiger 3, Akshay Kumar with Mission Raniganj and Shah Rukh Khan with Rajkumar Hirani’s Dunki in December. Of course, the franchisees have proved to be successful with Dream Girl 2 scoring a 100-crore haul at the box office. Mohan said, “The successful franchise Fukrey 3 is scheduled to release on September 28, which is expected to close the quarter with a healthy tally. With over 1150 crores already collected in the third quarter, it is safe to say that this has been the best quarter of 2023 for Bollywood.”
All eyes are now on the last quarter of the year to close 2023 with a bang and dispel the narrative that Bollywood is over and that audiences are not coming to cinemas. The upcoming three months have an impressive line-up of films in store, including Dono, Mission Raniganj, Thank You For Coming, Yaariyan 2, Ganpath, Tejas, Tiger 3, Emergency, Animal, Sam Bahadur, Yodha, Merry Christmas and Dunki.
Atul Mohan said, “This line-up has all the potential to surpass the third quarter’s performance and if it does, the business in these six months alone will be higher than the entire box office earnings of 2022.”
There is a striking comparison between the years 2019 and 2023 and box office business seems to be closer to previous glory years. Producer and trade expert Girish Johar said, “If you compare the first nine months of 2023 to previous years, then business has been quite good. Specifically, even if you compare it to 2019, when the business of the film industry was at its peak, the Hindi box office. After that pandemic hit us and the business went haywire. So, if we compare 2019 and 2023, we are exactly at the same number which is about Rs 3700 crore so far.”
Johar further cautioned, “Having said that, the next three months are very important and if we cross the 1500-crore mark we will be in a healthy space. Going ahead, I am expecting a 20 percent jump in the business as audiences would love to venture out more.”
Even regional and Hollywood films have fared well this year. According to Trade Expert Girish Wankhede, “Films like Barbie, Oppenheimer, Equalizer 3, Fast X, Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3, John Wick 4 and Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning kept the box office numbers ringing with impressive collections. The regional space in India was also quite impressive with Jailer, PS 2, Varisu, Carry on Jatta 3 and Baipan Bhari Deva… The second quarter in India has been super successful with some great content for big screen and the exhibitors are upbeat with July and August making more than Rs 2000 crore and are positive about great numbers in the coming months.’’
Trade Analyst Komal Nahata feels the film industry is in a very good place but content is going to be a crucial factor for the next three months. He said, “We are in a good position right now and the coming few months are going to be good with Animal, Tiger 3 and Dunki. About 2500 crores is riding on all films. We are back to the pre-COVID times. In fact we have never seen the collection like Gadar 2, Pathaan and Jawan before and now it all depends on the content of the film and there is no such trend in fact all kinds of films are working at the box office.”
Ashish Pherwani added, “Given the higher number of theatrical hits this year one can expect the satellite rights market to strengthen, too.”
Like Shah Rukh Khan said at the Jawan press conference, “We started with Pathaan on January 26 and Jawan on Janmashtami. We will end the year with Dunki on Christmas.” SRK summed things up perfectly when he said, its always Eid when his films hit theatres.
The year 2023 started with a bang with Shah Rukh Khan‘s Pathaan, the success of which was initially considered to be an aberration for 2023, but Karan Johar’s Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani got the family audiences back to the cinemas.That was followed by multiple films that turned out to be super hits at the box office including Gadar 2, Dream Girl 2 and Jawan, which has created new records at the box office.
Trade analyst Atul Mohan said, “The film industry, which had been navigating a tumultuous path back to its former glory, found itself bathed in success during the third quarter of 2023, spanning from July to September. This period not only rejuvenated the spirits of filmmakers but also breathed new life into the audience’s love for the silver screen. The quarter kicked off with the release of Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani on July 28, which grossed over 150 crores at the box office. This was followed by Gadar 2 and OMG 2 on August 11, which grossed over 500 crores and 135 crores respectively. Dream Girl 2, which was released on August 25, crossed the 100-crore mark. And Jawan, which was released on September 7, has already crossed 330 crores in just 7 days and running to good occupancy.”
The last quarter of 2023 seems to be even more promising for Bollywood with Salman Khan returning with Tiger 3, Akshay Kumar with Mission Raniganj and Shah Rukh Khan with Rajkumar Hirani’s Dunki in December. Of course, the franchisees have proved to be successful with Dream Girl 2 scoring a 100-crore haul at the box office. Mohan said, “The successful franchise Fukrey 3 is scheduled to release on September 28, which is expected to close the quarter with a healthy tally. With over 1150 crores already collected in the third quarter, it is safe to say that this has been the best quarter of 2023 for Bollywood.”
All eyes are now on the last quarter of the year to close 2023 with a bang and dispel the narrative that Bollywood is over and that audiences are not coming to cinemas. The upcoming three months have an impressive line-up of films in store, including Dono, Mission Raniganj, Thank You For Coming, Yaariyan 2, Ganpath, Tejas, Tiger 3, Emergency, Animal, Sam Bahadur, Yodha, Merry Christmas and Dunki.
Atul Mohan said, “This line-up has all the potential to surpass the third quarter’s performance and if it does, the business in these six months alone will be higher than the entire box office earnings of 2022.”
There is a striking comparison between the years 2019 and 2023 and box office business seems to be closer to previous glory years. Producer and trade expert Girish Johar said, “If you compare the first nine months of 2023 to previous years, then business has been quite good. Specifically, even if you compare it to 2019, when the business of the film industry was at its peak, the Hindi box office. After that pandemic hit us and the business went haywire. So, if we compare 2019 and 2023, we are exactly at the same number which is about Rs 3700 crore so far.”
Johar further cautioned, “Having said that, the next three months are very important and if we cross the 1500-crore mark we will be in a healthy space. Going ahead, I am expecting a 20 percent jump in the business as audiences would love to venture out more.”
Even regional and Hollywood films have fared well this year. According to Trade Expert Girish Wankhede, “Films like Barbie, Oppenheimer, Equalizer 3, Fast X, Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3, John Wick 4 and Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning kept the box office numbers ringing with impressive collections. The regional space in India was also quite impressive with Jailer, PS 2, Varisu, Carry on Jatta 3 and Baipan Bhari Deva… The second quarter in India has been super successful with some great content for big screen and the exhibitors are upbeat with July and August making more than Rs 2000 crore and are positive about great numbers in the coming months.’’
Trade Analyst Komal Nahata feels the film industry is in a very good place but content is going to be a crucial factor for the next three months. He said, “We are in a good position right now and the coming few months are going to be good with Animal, Tiger 3 and Dunki. About 2500 crores is riding on all films. We are back to the pre-COVID times. In fact we have never seen the collection like Gadar 2, Pathaan and Jawan before and now it all depends on the content of the film and there is no such trend in fact all kinds of films are working at the box office.”
Ashish Pherwani added, “Given the higher number of theatrical hits this year one can expect the satellite rights market to strengthen, too.”
Like Shah Rukh Khan said at the Jawan press conference, “We started with Pathaan on January 26 and Jawan on Janmashtami. We will end the year with Dunki on Christmas.” SRK summed things up perfectly when he said, its always Eid when his films hit theatres.