The Middle East entered a high-wire week of risk and opportunity on Monday, suspended between the prospect of a broadening conflict and intensive diplomatic efforts to prevent one.
Nearly two weeks after the back-to-back assassinations of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut and a Hamas leader in Tehran, Israel remained on high alert for possible retaliatory strikes by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and its patron, Iran.
At the same time, the Biden administration and Arab mediators have called for a high-level meeting on Thursday to try to advance a deal for a cease-fire in the war in Gaza that could help stave off the danger of escalating tit-for-tat strikes setting off a bigger regional conflagration.
President Biden and the leaders of the other mediating countries, Egypt and Qatar, said last week that they were prepared to present a “final” proposal to end the war, and they called on Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table after weeks of an impasse in talks.
In a joint statement, Mr. Biden, along with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani of Qatar, declared that “the time has come” to conclude the deal for a cease-fire and the release of hostages abducted to Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.
Israel will send its negotiating team to the meeting, which is expected to take place in Cairo or Doha, Qatar, “in order to finalize the details of the implementation of the framework agreement,” according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
But with gaps on substantive issues remaining — and Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas officials trading blame for the failure to close them — there was little expectation that a deal could be concluded at Thursday’s meeting. It was unclear to what extent Hamas was willing to engage in the talks. In a statement on Sunday, the group said it objected to “more rounds of negotiations” and the introduction of any new proposals or conditions.
Major sticking points include Mr. Netanyahu’s demand for a mechanism to block armed militants from moving back into northern Gaza, though Israel left the wording vague and has not specified what kind of mechanism; and the lack of any agreement so far over which hostages and which Palestinian prisoners would be released in the first phase of the deal.
Against this backdrop, Israel was pressing ahead with its offensive in Gaza despite sharp international condemnation for a deadly strike on Saturday on a school compound where displaced Palestinians were sheltering.
The Israeli military issued a new evacuation order on Sunday for a neighborhood on the edge of a humanitarian zone, saying it was about to operate against armed groups in the area. It also said that its air force had struck about 30 Hamas targets throughout the Gaza Strip over the previous 24 hours, including military structures, an anti-tank missile launch post and weapons storage facilities.
Officials in Gaza said over the weekend that dozens of people had been killed in Israel’s strike on the school compound. The Israeli military disputed that account and defended the strike, saying it had carried out a precise operation and eliminated at least 19 militants who were using the compound as a command center.
The authorities in Gaza do not distinguish between combatants and civilians in reporting death tolls. In statements over the weekend, Hamas said that all those killed were civilians. None of the claims could be independently verified.
Israel’s political and military leaders have argued that it is essential to keep up the military pressure on Hamas, to force it to come to terms on a cease-fire deal.
Still, there was a sense of foreboding in Israel, which was preparing to observe the Jewish fast of Tisha B’Av, commemorating historic disasters that have befallen the Jewish people.
For the annual day of mourning, which starts at sunset on Monday and lasts through Tuesday, some rabbis have composed special prayers to mark the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which prompted the war in Gaza.
The fast, traditionally marking the destruction of two ancient Jewish temples in Jerusalem, could also stoke tensions around a contested holy site in the city that is revered by Muslims as the Aqsa Mosque and by Jews as the site of the temples.