According to the latest exit polls Axis My India predicts that the BJP will secure between 28 and 29 seats, while the Congress may obtain 0 to 1 seat. Similarly, C-Voter exit polls forecast that the BJP will win around 26 to 28 seats, with the Congress expected to secure 1 to 3 seats. Meanwhile, Today’s Chanakya suggests a strong performance for the BJP, projecting that they will achieve 29 seats, leaving the Congress with no seats. These exit poll predictions indicate a strong showing for the BJP, similar to their previous success in the 2019 elections.
| Polling Agency | BJP Seats Predicted | Congress Seats Predicted |
| Axis My India | 28-29 | 0-1 |
| C-Voter | 26-28 | 1-3 |
| Today’s Chanakya | 29 | 0 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 28 | 1 |
| PMARQ | 28 | 1 |
| Matrize | 28 | 1 |
| Party | Poll of polls |
| NDA | 28 |
| INDIA bloc | 1 |
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 28 seats with a votes hare of 58%, while the Congress could manage only 1 seat with 34.5% of votes. This was despite the fact that the Congress had won the 2018 assembly elections and had its government in the state.
For the BJP, this was an increase in both seat share and vote share in the state compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, the saffron party had won 27 seats with 54% vote share while the Congress had bagged two seats with nearly 35% of votes.
The BJP, which won comprehensively in the 2023 assembly elections, had replaced Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the chief minister of the state with Mohan Yadav, keeping an eye on the caste equations. The Congress also removed party veteran and former chief minister Kamal Nath as state chief after assembly election drubbing and made Jitu Patwari the new MP chief.
If the exit poll predictions come true on June 4, when the votes will be counted, it would mean continued dominance of BJP in the state politics.
The Election Commission declared the schedule for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on March 16, setting the stage for an intense political contest across the country. Madhya Pradesh, a critical state with 29 constituencies, voted across multiple phases, witnessing significant voter participation.
Madhya Pradesh demonstrated electoral engagement across its constituencies, with total voter turnout of approximately 66.87%. In Phase 1, Balaghat saw a voter turnout of 73.45%, with 1,376,207 votes cast from 1,873,653 electors. Chhindwara recorded a turnout of 79.83%, with 1,303,001 votes cast from 1,632,190 electors. Jabalpur had a turnout of 61.00%, with 1,156,722 votes cast from 1,896,346 electors. Mandla saw 72.84% turnout, Shahdol reported 64.68%, and Sidhi had 56.50% turnout.
In Phase 2, Damoh recorded a voter turnout of 56.48%, with 1,087,455 votes cast from 1,925,314 electors. Hoshangabad saw 67.21% turnout, Khajuraho had 56.97%, Rewa reported 49.43%, Satna saw 61.94%, and Tikamgarh had 60.00% turnout.
Phase 3 saw Betul with a turnout of 73.53%, Bhind at 54.93%, Bhopal at 64.06%, Guna at 72.43%, Gwalior at 62.13%, Morena at 58.97%, Rajgarh at 76.04%, Sagar at 65.75%, and Vidisha at 74.48%.
In Phase 4, Dewas reported a voter turnout of 75.48%, Dhar saw 72.76%, Indore had 61.67%, Khandwa reported 71.52%, Khargone had 76.03%, Mandsaur saw 75.27%, Ratlam had 72.94%, and Ujjain reported 73.82%.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh also featured prominent candidates from both major parties, BJP and INC. In Morena, BJP’s Shivmangal Singh Tomar faced INC’s Satyapal Singh Sikarwar, while in Bhind, BJP’s Sandhya Rai contested against INC’s Phool Singh Baraiya. Gwalior saw BJP’s Bharat Singh Kushwaha against INC’s Praveen Pathak. Guna featured BJP’s Jyotiraditya Scindia against INC’s Rao Yadavendra Singh. Sagar had BJP’s Lata Wankhede competing with INC’s Guddu Raja Bundela, and Tikamgarh (SC) saw BJP’s Virendra Khatik against INC’s Pankaj Ahirwar. Damoh had BJP’s Rahul Lodhi facing INC’s Tarwar Singh Lodhi, and Rajgarh saw BJP’s V.D. Sharma against INDI Alliance’s Mira Yadav.
In Satna, BJP’s Ganesh Singh contested against INC’s Siddhatha Kushwaha, while Rewa saw BJP’s Janardhan Mishra against INC’s Neelam Mishra. Sidhi featured BJP’s Rajesh Mishra against INC’s Kamaleshwar Patel, and Shahdol saw BJP’s Himadri Singh against INC’s Fundelal Marko. Jabalpur had BJP’s Ashish Dubey facing INC’s Dinesh Yadav, while Mandla (ST) saw BJP’s Faggan Singh Kulaste against INC’s Omkar Singh Markaam. Hoshangabad had BJP’s Darshan Singh Chaudhary against INC’s Sanjay Sharma, and Vidisha saw BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chauhan against INC’s Bhanu Pratap Sharma.
Bhopal featured BJP’s Alok Sharma against INC’s Arun Shrivastava, and Rajgarh saw BJP’s Rodmal Nagar against INC’s Digvijay Singh. Dewas had BJP’s Mahendra Singh Solanki against INC’s Rajendra Malviya, and Mandsaur saw BJP’s Sudhir Gupta against INC’s Dilip Singh Gurjar. Ratlam (ST) featured BJP’s Anita Nagar Singh Chauhan against INC’s Kantilal Bhuria, while Khargone (ST) had BJP’s Gajendra Patel facing INC’s Porlal Kharte. Khandwa saw BJP’s Gyaneshwar Patil against INC’s Narendra Patel, and Betul (ST) had BJP’s Durga Das Uikey facing INC’s Ramu Tekam. Chhindwara featured BJP’s Vivek ‘Bunty’ Sahu against INC’s Nakul Nath, while Dhar saw BJP’s Savitri Thakur against INC’s Raheshyaam Muvel. Balaghat had BJP’s Dr. Bharti Pardhi against INC’s Samrat Saraswat, and Ujjain featured BJP’s Anil Firojiya against INC’s Mahesh Parmar. Indore saw BJP’s Shankar Lalwani against INC’s Akshay Kanti Bam.