On Tuesday, sensex opened the session above the 75k mark – at 75,124 points – also its new all-time peak, but some profit-taking at those levels pulled it down to close at 74,684, down 59 points on the day.On NSE, Nifty, too, scaled a new life-time peak at 22,768 points during early trades but closed at 22,643, down 24 points.
The slide was partially owing to investors’ nervousness about expected US inflation data due Wednesday, more so after recent high-employment data released last week, said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services. An uptick in US inflation reading could delay rate cuts by its central bank and put global investors on the backfoot.
For sensex, the 75k milestone came a day after BSE went past a major landmark – scaling the Rs 400-lakh-crore market capitalisation. In the last 10 years, since Modi-led NDA govt came to office, investors’ wealth, measured by BSE’s market cap, has gone up by five times.
‘75k to act as springboard for growth’
According to Sarvjeet Singh Virk, co-founder & MD, Finvasia, a tech-driven financial services firm, sensex at 75k not only reflects past successes of Indian markets but also “acts as a springboard for future growth, instilling confidence in investors who are now poised to embrace the promising journey ahead”.
Among successes of the past decade were India’s move from being a $1.7 trillion market cap economy to a $4.8-trillion one now, setting up one of the world’s fastest settlement systems (T+1), one of the fastest IPO processes that involves retail as well as institutional investors and the most vibrant derivatives trading system in terms of number of contracts.
All these, along with a market system that is increasingly opening up access to even small and medium enterprises to list on the bourses at a reasonable cost, and the rise of the retail investors as a major investing group (through the mutual fund route) give every investor confidence to put their money in the Indian market, industry veterans say.
Looking forward, June 4 results of Lok Sabha elections will be the prime determinant of the market’s trajectory for the following few months. Additionally, the interest rate scenario in the US and other major economies, progress of monsoon in India (private forecaster SkyMet has predicted good rains for 2024), corporate results, foreign fund flows and economic fundamentals will also have a major impact on investor sentiment, market players said.
In short term, investors’ focus will shift to earnings delivery as stock prices are factoring in reasonable growth during the earnings season that’s starting this week, said Naveen Kulkarni, chief investment officer, Axis Securities PMS. “If the earnings season turns out to be disappointing, then the market will correct. However, if there are more upgrades than downgrades, the market will continue to move upwards.”