Shehbaz, who first came to power after Imran’s ouster, has taken over the top post for the second time as the country faces massive economic and security challenges that are likely to leave Pakistan in turmoil for years to come.
Economic crisis
Economic instability poses a formidable challenge to Pakistan’s development and prosperity.
The country grapples with a myriad of economic issues, including sky rocketing inflation (around 25%-30%), unemployment, alarming debt burden, and economic growth slowing to a meagre 2%.
Structural impediments such as poor infrastructure, energy shortages, and low human capital development are also hindering economic growth and investment.
The nation’s poor, in particular, are bearing the brunt of the soaring cost of essential items, with many rendered incapable of buying even basic food items and paying electricity bills.
Addressing these economic challenges will require comprehensive reforms aimed at improving fiscal management, enhancing revenue generation, promoting export-led growth, and attracting foreign investment.
Shehbaz will need to emulate his feat of securing a short-term $3 billion IMF bailout with the current programme expiring next month and a new extended deal needed to keep Pakistan on a narrow path to recovery.
Rising militancy
Terrorism and internal security threats remain persistent challenges in Pakistan.
Despite significant efforts by the government to combat terrorism, various militant groups, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and sectarian outfits, continue to operate in certain regions, posing a threat to civilian lives and state institutions.
The porous border with Afghanistan exacerbates this issue, allowing militants to move across the border with relative ease.
Additionally, internal unrest in regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa further compounds the security challenges, requiring sustained counterinsurgency efforts by the Pakistani military and law enforcement agencies.
In 2023, fatal terror attacks in Pakistan reached a level not seen since 2016. Around 400 civilians and 550 security personnel were killed in terror attacks last year.
Political instability
Despite being slapped with dozens of criminal cases and barred from holding any political office, Imran Khan-backed candidates performed extraordinarily well in the general elections, winning 93 seats. Shehbaz Sharif’s PML-N won 75 seats, forcing it to tie up with the PPP (which won 54 seats) to form a coalition government.
Analysts say that public confidence in Shehbaz Sharif’s government is low.
His selection also brings to a crossroads the role of Pakistan’s powerful military, which has long been seen as an invisible hand guiding the country’s politics and has previously engineered its election results.
“This new coalition government is likely to be weak and unstable, given that disagreements might emerge between the PML-N and PPP. It is also likely to be deferential to the army, as it was during its first tenure,” said Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.
It remains to be seen whether Shehbaz Sharif is able to keep the coalition intact.
Fractious politics, characterised by frequent political turmoil, polarisation between civilian and military establishments, and allegations of corruption, impede policymaking and effective governance.
Additionally, tensions between federal and provincial governments, particularly in provinces like Sindh and Balochistan, hinder the implementation of cohesive national policies and development initiatives.
Water scarcity, food insecurity
Pakistan also faces severe water scarcity and environmental degradation, exacerbated by climate change, rapid urbanisation, and unsustainable agricultural practices.
This has led to water shortages, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased competition for scarce resources including food.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), around 18% of Pakistan’s population is undernourished, indicating a significant portion of the populace lacks access to an adequate and nutritious diet.
The agricultural sector, which employs nearly 38% of the country’s workforce, faces numerous challenges.
Erratic weather patterns, intensified by climate change, have led to decreased crop yields and livestock productivity. The 2010 floods affected approximately 20% of Pakistan’s cultivated land, causing substantial agricultural losses.
Around 24% of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line, with limited access to nutritious food due to financial constraints. Malnutrition remains prevalent, with 36% of children under the age of five suffering from stunted growth, as reported by the World Food Programme (WFP).
(With inputs from agencies)