Election Day has arrived, and with it, a mix of excitement, tension, and the shared hope for finality. Yet, the high-stakes presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris may not yield an immediate result. Trump, who has effectively been campaigning for nearly a decade, and Harris, a last-minute entrant with only 16 weeks in the race, make this an unprecedented election. Originally planned as a rematch between Trump and President Biden, the contest changed course after a decisive debate, leading to Harris’s nomination. The campaign has also been marked by violence, with two separate assassination attempts on Trump, intensifying the already charged atmosphere.
78 million votes cast
With over 78 million votes cast before Election Day, polls show a tight race across seven battleground states, meaning it could take days—or longer—to confirm the winner. The initial returns may give hints, but certainty is unlikely. Polls will close first in Georgia at 7 p.m. Eastern time, followed shortly by North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. Early votes in both states are expected to be counted quickly, and by midnight, the results could hint at the election’s trajectory. If Harris leads in these early states, she may have multiple paths to the required 270 electoral votes, narrowing Trump’s chances. Conversely, if Trump leads, or if results are close, attention could turn to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where slower vote counts could delay the result. In Pennsylvania, polls close at 8 p.m., but counting mail-in ballots there is expected to continue past Election Day. Michigan’s polls close at 9 p.m., though previous elections have shown that it may take time to count ballots, while Wisconsin’s polls also close at 9 p.m. with extended counting expected. In the Western states of Arizona and Nevada, where polls close later at 9 p.m. and 10 p.m., counting could stretch for days due to heavy reliance on mail ballots.
Why will it take long?
The duration of the counting process will depend heavily on each state’s specific rules for processing mail and absentee ballots, which often require signature verification and other steps. Some states allow pre-processing of mail ballots, speeding up counts, but others, like Pennsylvania, do not, which can lead to delays. If the election is extremely close in one or more battleground states, the final result may hinge on these slower counts, as well as on possible recounts triggered by narrow margins.
The slower pace of counting ballots in the United States compared to countries like India stems from a few key factors:
Decentralised Election System: In the U.S., each state—and often each county—has its own rules and methods for conducting elections, including how and when ballots are counted. This creates a patchwork of procedures, with some states able to start processing ballots in advance, while others, like Pennsylvania, can only begin after polls close.
Heavy Use of Mail-In Ballots: Since 2020, there has been a substantial increase in mail-in and absentee voting, especially in battleground states. Mail-in ballots require additional steps for validation, such as signature matching, which slows down the process. States that allow early processing of mail-in votes tend to report faster, while others experience delays.
Legal Restrictions on Early Counting: Some states prohibit counting ballots before Election Day, meaning all mail-in and absentee ballots are counted alongside in-person votes after the polls close. For example, states like Michigan and Wisconsin are unable to begin counting mail ballots until the day of the election, resulting in delays.
Close Contests in Key States: When results are close in battleground states, every ballot must be counted to confirm the winner, especially if margins are narrow enough to trigger recounts. This level of scrutiny and recounts often prolongs the process.
Election Security Measures: In light of past controversies, especially after the 2020 election, more rigorous election security measures are in place to prevent fraud and ensure transparency. These measures include extended verification processes for absentee ballots, which, while enhancing security, also increase the time required to finalise counts.
Extensive Legal Framework for Challenges: The U.S. has a comprehensive legal process to address election disputes. Candidates can request recounts or file legal challenges if they suspect irregularities. This can delay final results if legal action is pursued, especially if the outcome hinges on a few critical states.
High Voter Turnout in a Large Electorate: With over 150 million registered voters, the scale of counting and verifying votes is enormous compared to many other democracies. This sheer volume naturally requires more time, particularly with tight races in multiple states.
In contrast, India, while larger in population, has a more centralised election commission that oversees a uniform process across states, enabling faster counting. Additionally, India primarily relies on electronic voting machines (EVMs), which simplify the counting process by reducing the need for manual ballot verification.
India’s vote-counting process for general elections is managed by the Election Commission of India (ECI) using Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), in use since 2000, and the Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) system, added in 2013 to enhance transparency. Counting begins at 8 AM under the supervision of a Returning Officer (RO) assigned for each constituency. The RO selects the counting location, often the constituency headquarters. In larger constituencies, counting occurs in multiple halls, overseen by Assistant Returning Officers (AROs).
Votes are counted in rounds, typically handling results from 14 EVMs at a time, with separate arrangements for parliamentary and assembly votes. Postal ballots are counted first, followed by EVM votes. For verification, VVPAT slips from five randomly selected polling stations per assembly segment are matched with EVM results. This verification, supervised by the RO, takes place in a secured booth. In cases of discrepancies, the VVPAT paper slip count is considered final. This comprehensive process ensures accuracy and transparency in election outcomes, allowing the RO to declare final results only after VVPAT-EVM consistency is confirmed.
What if the candidates are unhappy?
If either candidate is dissatisfied with the outcome, the process to challenge the results is complex and highly regulated. The legal pathways for challenging election outcomes vary by state, but they generally involve recounts, court appeals, and, in rare cases, legislative involvement. Candidates can petition for recounts under specific circumstances, typically if the margin of victory falls below a particular threshold. Additionally, both parties have legal teams ready to dispute perceived irregularities or procedural violations. Challenges may start at the state level, escalating to the federal courts if needed, but each challenge must provide specific evidence of fraud or procedural error.
Jan 6 Shadow
The memory of January 6, 2021, looms large over this election, as a stark reminder of what can occur when election disputes spiral out of control. Following the 2020 election, Trump and his allies challenged the results in several states, alleging widespread fraud despite a lack of evidence. On January 6, 2021, as Congress met to formally certify Joe Biden’s victory, a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol in a violent attempt to halt the process, leading to a day of chaos and tragedy. This event marked one of the most significant challenges to democratic processes in recent history and has since shaped discussions on election security and transparency.
As this year’s election progresses, the possibility of a prolonged, contentious aftermath remains. Trump has already cast doubt on the system, alleging that voting machines could be manipulated and that Harris’s victory would be legitimate only if achieved without interference. Another premature victory claim could heighten post-election discord and strain a system already under intense scrutiny. Both campaigns are prepared for extended legal battles if the results are contested, with lawyers on standby to litigate any disputed outcomes.
In the broader context, the stakes for both parties are enormous. Republicans have placed their faith in Trump, despite his polarising image, targeting young, male, and nonwhite voters. Democrats initially backed Biden but shifted their support to Harris, even reaching out to moderate Republicans. The results will ultimately show which approach resonates most effectively with voters. As we wait for the outcome, patience will be essential, as the final decision may only be confirmed after extensive counting, legal scrutiny, and, perhaps, an examination of the very rules that underpin the democratic process.