Just 22 electorates out of 151 across Australia are predicted to vote Yes to the referendum on Saturday, new analysis has revealed.
New analysis by UK firm focaldata, using advanced statistical techniques pioneered at the most recent Australian and British elections, reveals that just 22 out of 151 federal electorates are home to a majority of likely “yes” voters.
For the voice referendum to pass, it needs a majority across Australia, and four of the six states to also have a majority of Yes votes.
But this analysis reveals that the “no” vote could pick up as much as 61 per cent of the vote versus 39 per cent “yes”, greater than the most recent Newspoll, which put the split at 66 to 34 per cent.
In NSW, only a handful of inner city and suburban seats are expected to vote “yes”, while in Queensland, which is expected to come in heavily against the referendum Saturday night, only the inner-city seats are expected to vote “yes”.
But in regional Queensland, opposition is among the strongest anywhere in the country.
In South Australia, there is support for Yes in Adelaide, but it drops quickly outside the inner suburban seats.
A similar story is told in Victoria, where Melburnians in the seat of Melbourne are expected to overwhelming endorse the Voice by 64 per cent but support drops off rapidly as one moves away from the city.
Find out how your electorate is prediction to vote:
NSW/ACT
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Top three Yes electorates
Sydney – 70.4 per cent
Grayndler – 64.5 per cent
Canberra – 61.9 per cent
Top three No electorates
Calare – 72.3 per cent
Lyne – 72.2 per cent
Cowper – 71.9 per cent
Find out how your NSW/ACT electorate is predicted to vote
Queensland
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Top three Yes electorates
Brisbane – 57.2 per cent
Griffith – 52.6 per cent
Ryan – 50.6 per cent
Top three No electorates
Kennedy – 84.9 per cent
Maranoa – 81.5 per cent
Wide Bay 77.5 per cent
Find out how your Queensland electorate is predicted to vote
Victoria
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Top three Yes electorates
Melbourne – 64 per cent
Macnamara – 56.8 per cent
Wills – 52 per cent
Top three No electorates
Mallee – 77.1 per cent
Nicholls – 74.2 per cent
Gippsland – 73.5 per cent
Find out how your Victorian electorate is predicted to vote
South Australia
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Top three Yes electorates
Adelaide – 59.9 per cent
Hindmarsh – 49.7 per cent
Boothby – 49 per cent
Top three No electorates
Grey – 71.1 per cent
Barker – 69.9 per cent
Mayo – 61.5 per cent
Find out how your South Australian electorate is predicted to vote
Northern Territory/Western Australia/Tasmania
Top three Yes electorates
Clark (Tas) – 56.5 per cent
Perth (WA) – 52.9 per cent
Franklin (Tas) – 45.9 per cent
Top three No electorates
O’Connor (WA) – 75.7 per cent
Canning (WA) – 74.3 per cent
Forrest (WA) – 73.1 per cent
Find out how electorates in WA, Tasmania and NT are predicted to vote
Originally published as How every Australian electorate is predicted to vote